Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 201250
SWODY1
SPC AC 201248

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND A
PART OF SOUTH FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
across central into a portion of south Florida.

...Central/south FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across a swath of
the eastern Gulf, with more recent development occurring across the
central peninsula near the quasi-stationary front. The degree of
convection inland, along with cloud debris complicates the forecast
scenario. It appears one pocket of stronger boundary-layer heating
should occur in the near-term across southeast FL. The 12Z Tampa
sounding sampled modest mid-level lapse rates but an elongated
straight-line hodograph above the 800-mb level and greater low-level
moisture relative to the 12Z Miami sounding. This suggests the
environment will be most conducive for splitting cells with
mid-level updraft rotation across the central peninsula capable of
producing marginally severe hail as the primary near-term threat.
See MCD 400 for additional short-term information. 

Consensus of guidance does suggest that low-level southwesterlies
will increase somewhat, but mainly this afternoon after most of the
convection has already transpired. As this process ensues, there is
potential for a surface-based supercell or two to be capable of a
tornado and locally damaging winds. A portion of the region may be
upgraded in the next outlook cycle if a corridor of greater than
MRGL threat for a tornado can be readily identified.

..Grams/Dial.. 04/20/2021

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4