Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

343 
ACUS01 KWNS 050103
SWODY1
SPC AC 050101

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with damaging wind and large hail will persist this
evening into tonight over a portion of the northern and central
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley region. Other strong to
severe storms will continue this evening over a portion of the
southern Plains.

...Northern and central Plains through the upper Mississippi Valley
region...

Widely scattered storms including a few supercells continue
spreading southeastward through the northern and central Plains
where the atmosphere remains moderately to strongly unstable with
steep lapse rates and MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg. An increase in
convective inhibition will occur as the surface layer cools, so
storm maintenance will be largely driven by forcing along any
consolidating cold pools or sustained supercells as activity
continues southeast. One or two clusters could evolve and persist
into the overnight with a continued threat for damaging wind and
large hail.

...Southern Plains...

Large cluster of storms persists from western OK through northwest
TX region. Some of this activity remains severe with a few damaging
wind gusts, and the severe threat may persist another couple hours.
However, a substantial increase in convective inhibition associated
with a stabilizing boundary layer suggests activity should begin a
decreasing trend by 03Z.

..Dial.. 06/05/2020

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4