Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 171940
SWODY1
SPC AC 171938

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will continue over portions of the Southeast,
Tennessee Valley, and Appalachians today.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments have been made to the northern extent of the
general thunderstorm area across MS/TN/KY into the central
Appalachians to account for current convective trends. Across the
Southeast, thunderstorms will likely remain confined to the cool
side of surface front. With only weak elevated instability expected,
severe potential continues to appear too low to include any
probabilities across this region.

..Gleason.. 02/17/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast States...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today along an
advancing cold front. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures and a
displacement of the stronger lift to the north will result in poor
lapse rates and minimal instability overall. While
deep-layer/low-level shear will be strong, and semi-organized
convection may evolve particularly across AL, severe potential is
still expected to be considerably limited by the marginal
thermodynamic environment.

...Northern/central California Coast...
In relation to a south/southeastward-digging shortwave trough, some
shallow convection is likely but updrafts reaching temperatures
needed for lightning production will be sparse. Thus, lightning
coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4