Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 261944
SWODY1
SPC AC 261942

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur into this evening from the Mid South
to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona.

...20z Update...

The previous outlook philosophy remains unchanged with the 20z
update. Areas near the Missouri Bootheel vicinity have been removed
from the Marginal/5 percent wind risk as convection has shifted
south and east. The 10 percent general thunderstorm area has also
been removed from portions of the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma as a
drier airmass filters south behind the southward-sagging cold front.
For more details on expected severe threats into this evening, see
the previous discussion below.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/

...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from
eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA.  A corridor of rich
low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast.  Winds
aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak.  This, combined
with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the
overall severe threat quite limited.  However, the potential exists
for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally
damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area.  This threat
should diminish quickly after sunset.  Refer to MCD #1296 for
short-term details on parts of the area.

...AZ...
Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately
unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. 
Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered
high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind
gusts.  Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4